Battle of the Bulge
By S. Craig Taylor, Jr.
PRELUDE TO BATTLE
The Battle of the Bulge is a compiled reprint from 2006's
issues of Cher Ami. Enjoy!
The Battle of the Bulge is of interest to Lost Battalion Games
because it touches on two of the games in our line. Our
COMBAT SOLDIERS In the Battle of the Bulge card game is an abstract
recreation of the battle at a low level that catches the confusion of the
actions. If you own the SERGEANTS! – Expansion,
you now have American units and some Battle of the Bulge scenarios, already
finished and play tested, will be available soon. During World War Two, the two
most serious "surprises" experienced by the United States were the "Day of
Infamy", the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, and the
German Ardennes offensive known as the "Battle of the Bulge", starting on
December 16, 1944. In both instances, clues of unusual activity were
misunderstood and disregarded.
The Japanese thought they could strike hard blows and win
enough early victories to force a victorious negotiated settlement – that plan
had worked for them before in the 1904 – 1905 Russo-Japanese War. The United
States was surprised that the Japanese would start a war with such a powerful
adversary that they would inevitably lose and also surprised at the location of
the attack – if the Japanese attacked, it was expected to be directed at the
British in Malaya and at the United States in the Philippines. The Japanese
thought that eliminating the United States Pacific Fleet with a surprise
followed up by quick conquests in the Pacific was a way to win an otherwise
uneven war. The Japanese were later surprised themselves when they found that
the United States was prepared to accept the heavy losses necessary to roll
back the Japanese defense perimeter.
In the 1944 German surprise, after a series of catastrophic
disasters in 1944, the Germans were thought to be finished. The German high
command, at least in the person of Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler, thought that a
surprise offensive in the Ardennes would reverse the war’s momentum – an
offensive through the Ardennes had worked before, in 1940, when France was
overrun and forced to surrender. Of course, Hitler ignored most basic military
logic in his desperate, last-ditch effort to change the course of the war. Ever
since, commentators have sought to show how various "clues" were available to
predict both attacks but the real, root cause for the surprises at Pearl Harbor
and in the Ardennes was an inability to understand the enemy’s desperate and
twisted logic.
Militarily, "surprise" is considered to be a "force
multiplier". A force having the advantage of surprise is more effective in
combat. A force that has been surprised is confused, disorganized and
demoralized and is less effective in combat. The combination of a more
effective attacker and a less effective defender multiplies the value of the
attacker beyond normal comparisons of numbers, equipment and training.
By the end of 1944, the war was going very much against Nazi
Germany. In the east, "Operation Bagration", starting on June 22, turned into
the "Destruction of Army Group Center" as a huge hole was ripped in the German
lines. The Soviet armies drove on to the borders of East Prussia and 25 German
divisions simply disappeared. Earlier that month, the Allied armies in Italy
broke through the German mountain defenses, liberated Rome on June 4 and drove
into northern Italy. Two days after the fall of Rome, the Allied armies in
Great Britain, under Dwight D. "Ike" Eisenhower, established a beachhead in
Normandy on "D-Day", June 6, 1944. This tied up the 1,000,000 German troops in
northern Europe in a bloody campaign of attrition as the Allied beachhead was
expanded and heavily reinforced. Two months later, the Allies broke out at
Avaranches in "Operation Cobra", leading to a German rout and their near
encirclement near Falaise. Most of France and the Low Countries were liberated
by the victorious Allied armies as they drove forward to the German border as
the colors of autumn deepened.
Allied progress slowed as gasoline, entering the continent over
the Normandy beaches, now hundreds of miles to the rear, could not be brought
forward fast enough for their hard-charging mechanized spearheads. While the
Allies were stalled, the Germans gained time to deploy newly-raised troops to
defend their prewar border fortifications, known as the "West Wall" or
"Siegfried Line". These fortifications were out of date but strong enough to
protect the German defenders from the overwhelmingly powerful Allied artillery
and airpower. In addition to supply problems, the 60 American, British,
Canadian, French and Polish divisions in northern Europe were suffering a
manpower crunch. American and Canadian replacements had to cross the Atlantic,
French conscripts needed training, as most of their army from 1940 was still in
German prisoner of war camps, the Poles were cut off from their country’s
potential recruits and the British, after five years of war, were reaching the
end of their manpower pool. Aggravating American replacement problems was that,
prior to mid 1944, most U. S. Army losses had been in the Air Force, then part
of the Army. The United States, which provided the majority of the Allied
divisions, had trained a high a percentage of its manpower for tasks other than
ground combat so there was a shortage of ground pounding infantrymen. Even the
trained infantrymen still at home were slow to arrive in Europe as the war
there was felt to be almost over and there was a reluctance to ship troops to
Europe that could be used in the ongoing war in the Pacific.
British Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery, commander of the
Twenty-First Army Group, made a daring attempt to use paratroopers to seize the
key bridges through the Netherlands into Germany in "Operation Market Garden"
but the attempt failed. His Canadian First Army was involved in a long and
difficult campaign to clear the approaches to the great port of Antwerp. Once
Antwerp was available, its use as a port and supply center would relieve Allied
supply problems. Until then, General Eisenhower felt he could only bring the
Allied armies into a continuous line along the German border, maintaining
pressure until the Germans either snapped or the arrival of more gasoline and
replacements permitted a resumption of a full-fledged Allied drive into
Germany.
As the late autumn Allied campaign developed, American General
Omar N. Bradley’s Twelfth Army Group was advancing slowly. The American United
States First and Ninth armies inched forward north of the Ardennes. South of
the Ardennes, American General George S. "Blood and Guts" Patton’s United
States Third Army was also advancing slowly. Between the First and Third
armies, Bradley, as a "calculated risk", left only the four divisions of
General Troy Middleton’s United States VIII Corps to hold eighty miles of
rugged Ardennes terrain. In peacetime the Ardennes is a picturesque vacation
area. In 1940, the German panzer (armored) divisions had run right over the
handful of unprepared French troops in the area on their way to defeating
France in only six weeks. Despite that earlier success, the area was unsuited
for large mechanized operations and by late 1944 was a "ghost front" where both
sides assigned wrecked units to recuperate from fighting elsewhere.
In a meeting on September 16, 1944, long before the Allied
armies had reached the German border, German Fuhrer Adolf Hitler announced his
intention to launch an offensive through the Ardennes. Planned for November,
the attack was to be made by the three armies of Field Marshal Model’s German
Army Group B. Repeated delays in accumulating troops, material and supplies
eventually pushed the schedule back to the middle of December. Until then,
German General Erich Brandenberger’s Seventh German Army and German General
Gunther Blumentritt’s German Fifteenth Army were tasked with holding the line
while reserves were massed to the rear.
THE PLAN
AD_Map_Mystery_History.xml
Reserves assembled to the rear of the German front lines
consisted of the newly-organized German Sixth Panzer Army, under General Josef
"Sepp" Dietrich, which included four powerful SS panzer divisions. Its
companion German Fifth Panzer Army, under General Hasso von Manteuffel,
included four army panzer divisions. As part of the German reorganization in
preparation for the attack, Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt, an old, competent
and much respected commander (already relieved of command twice by Hitler) was
again appointed to command the Western Front. Early accounts of the Battle of
the Bulge often referred to it as the "Rundstedt Offensive" but he was merely a
figurehead in the Fuhrer’s lofty schemes. The old Field Marshal was a ploy –
his prestige was used to rally other German generals to the plan.
The German offensive
would fall in the thinly-held Ardennes and would use the four armies in Army
Group B. Every effort was bent to assemble maximum forces and to achieve
surprise. The north flank would be held by the Fifteenth Army, whose infantry
was to advance to cover the right flank of the Sixth Panzer Army but, in the
event, took only a small part in the offensive. The main German effort was to
be made by the Sixth Panzer Army, with the Fifth Panzer Army advancing parallel
to it and covering its left flank. The Seventh Army, which originally held most
of the front, was to cover the left flank of the Fifth Panzer Army in a more
limited infantry advance.
German plans called for the oversized SS panzer divisions of
Sixth Panzer Army to reach the Meuse River in 48 hours, establish a bridgehead
near Liege and then wheel north to capture Antwerp. In a parallel advance to
the south, Fifth Panzer Army was to cross the Meuse River near Namur and then
capture Brussels. The attacking divisions got first call on Germany’s
decreasing manpower reserves, vehicle production, airpower support and all
available ammunition and gasoline. Despite their efforts, the Germans were so
short of gasoline that their plans required capturing large stocks of Allied
petroleum during the offensive. By single-mindedly concentrating on one object,
more strength was concentrated in the Ardennes than the Allies believed
possible. Hitler’s plan was intended to totally change the course of the war on
the Western Front. Seizing Antwerp would disrupt Allied supply lines and cut
off some 37 Allied divisions. If all went well, the planned success would allow
resources to be shifted to more neglected fronts once the offensive was over.
Contrary to the Fuhrer’s plans, his generals’ more conventional
military minds agreed that his reach exceeded his grasp and they proposed a
less ambitious offensive to "spoil" the coming Allied offensive by cutting off
and destroying the salient already created by American attacks north of the
Ardennes. After barely surviving a coup attempt by the officer corps on July
20, Hitler refused to listen to their "defeatist" ideas and insisted that his
plans be implemented. The German forces were massed under an effective cover
plan. Although the Germans did not realize it, their use of land lines (the
German telephone network) eliminated the super-secret "Ultra" radio
interceptions that had served Allied intelligence so well in the past. Radio
messages used by the German military were used to simulate defensive
preparations. As a further deception, the code name for the offensive was the
defensive sounding "Wacht am Rhine" ("Watch on the Rhine"). Troops and vehicles
were moved up from their hidden reserve positions only at the last minute.
Finally, at 0530 hours on December 16, a brief but violent artillery barrage
started falling on the American lines and the offensive began.
THE INITIAL ADVANCES OF SIXTH PANZER ARMY
All along the front, starting in the darkest hours of the
night, carefully preregistered German artillery crashed into American defensive
positions. After an hour of bombardment, the German tanks and infantrymen
swarmed forward as giant searchlights played their beams on low clouds to
create "artificial moonlight". Atrocious weather precluded much air activity
during the early days of the offensive, so the issue was to be decided by the
men on the ground.
In the far north of
the offensive, Sepp Dietrich's Sixth Panzer Army attacked elements of General
Leonard Gerow's United States V Corps. Dietrich opted to lead with his infantry
to punch a hole in the American lines before committing his armor. Assaults by
the German 272nd and 326th Volksgrenadier divisions failed to gain much ground
from the U. S. 78th Infantry Division and 102nd Cavalry Group. The main attack
caught the veteran United States 2nd Infantry Division passing through the
green United States 99th Infantry Division to continue an ongoing American
attack. Caught seriously off-balance, the Americans nevertheless skillfully
fought off the German 12th Volksgrenadier, the 277th Volksgrenadier and the
panzergrenadiers (infantry) of the 12th SS Panzer divisions, delaying them in a
series of battles centered on the villages of Rocherath and Krinklet. With
German presuure increasing and threatened with encirclement, the two American
infantry divisions gradually fell back to the town of Elsenborn and then to
nearby Elsenborn Ridge by the 19th. Joined there by the arriving United States
1st and 9th Infantry divisions, the V Corps held off all further German
assaults. The skillfull fighting retreat and final solid defense here blocked
the German drive on Liege, Belgium, the shortest route to the Meuse River.
South of Elsenborn, Peiper's Panzer Brigade of the 1st SS
Panzer Division, with over 100 tanks and self-propelled guns, many of them the
huge and dreaded Tigers, slipped through the
thin American lines and advanced into the American rear area, followed at a
distance by the rest of the 1st SS Panzer Division and, after their relief
further north by the 3rd Panzergrenadier Division, by the 12th SS Panzer
Division. Oberst (= Colonel) Friedrich Heydte's paratroopers, hopelessly spread
out after a night drop on December 16/17, still led to additional confusion in
this critical area. The 150th Panzer Brigade was also later fed into this
confused fighting.
The 150th Panzer Brigade, although commanded by SS
Obersturmbannfuhrer (= Lieutenant Colonel) Otto Skorzeny, was a normal army
unit of low strength and combat value. What it did have was English-speaking
soldiers, captured American vehicles and German vehicles painted to look like
American ones. Although the unit's combat career was short and ineffective, it
spread its share of confusion. Jeep loads of English-speaking German soldiers
infiltrated the American lines, removing and changing road signs, ambushing
convoys and even managed to worry the headquarters guards protecting Eisenhower
himself. This relative handful of German operatives caused the Americans to set
up hundreds of road blocks where soldiers were forced to prove they were
Americans by answering who was the girlfriend of Mickey Mouse and what baseball
team featured Joe Dimaggio (who was in the service himself in 1944). When
captured, these Germans were shot as spies.
Hitler also called for a "wave of terror" to sow confusion in
the Allied ranks. The SS (= "Schutzstaffeln" = "Protection Squads") originally
formed a small but politically reliable bodyguard for Hitler but, by 1944,
literally constituted an army within an army in the German war machine.
Although many of the dozens of SS units were drawn from foreign rabble, nazi
sympathizers and turncoats and were of low or indifferent quality, the seven SS
Panzer divisions, five of which were on the Western Front, were usually
considered to be "elite" units with high morale and the most and best
equipment. At age 29, Joachim Peiper was a veteran SS commander with a
particularly ruthless reputation from the Soviet Front and the Waffen SS (=
"Armed SS") troops in all their panzer and panzergrenadier divisions were
especially brutal. The SS advances were leaving trails of executed American
prisoners and Belgian civilians in their wake, the most notorious incident
veing the infamous "Malmedy Massacre". As word of these atrocities spread,
American anger grew and some units vowed to take no prisoners in SS uniforms,
which led to some particularly nasty struggles in the weeks to come.
In a classic "blitzkreig" (= "lightning war"), crushing small
units and going around larger ones, Peiper's Brigade led the German advance, at
one point forcing the evacuation of Hodge's United States First Army
headquarters at Spa. Advancing along multiple roads with various spearheads,
Peiper's force repeatedly ran afoul of varied resistance from isolated engineer
units at roadblocks, blown bridges across unfordable waterways and vicious
organized resistance in strong defensive positions held by regular American
combat outfits. Making it as far as Stoumont before running out of gasoline,
Peiper found himself separated from the other SS units in a position that was
nearly surrounded and endlessly blasted by the excellent American artillery.
Worse, the SS troops were relentlessly attacked by elements of the United
States 3rd Armored, 30th Infantry (also busy hunting down Heydte's
paratroopers) and 82nd Airborne divisions. After heavy fighting, the German
spearhead was largely destroyed. Peiper and 800 of his men finally escaped only
by abandoning all their vehicles and heavy equipment and walking back to the
German lines. This all but ended the independent offensive by the German Sixth
Panzer Army. By December 21, the original German plan had failed.
THE INITIAL GERMAN ADVANCES IN THE SOUTH
Despite the presence of the powerful SS panzer divisions, the
original German plan for their Sixth Panzer Army fell hopelessly behind
schedule. The effect of the initial surprise had not prevented numerous
American formations from reaching and reinforcing the northern "shoulder" of
the developing bulge in the Allied lines. On the other hand, Manteuffel's
German Fifth Panzer Army, originally intended to support the Sixth Panzer
Army's advance, was unexpectedly successful. Although no German formation came
close to reaching the Meuse River in the first 48 hours, the German center
gained some significant successes.
In the northern sector
of the Fifth Panzer Army's front, the 3rd Fallschirmjager and 18th and 62nd
Volksgrenadier divisions, later joined by the Fuhrer Begleit (= Fuhrer Escort)
Brigade, pushed aside and virtually destroyed the U. S. 14th Cavalry Group
while advancing rapidly towards St. Vith and into the rear of the green U. S.
106th Infantry Division. While elements of the volksgrenadier divisions
assaulted the 106th frontally, other Germans moved around its flanks. Two
American infantry regiments were surrounded and, unable to retreat, surrendered
on December 19.
Further west, the U. S. 7th Armored Division, originally tasked
to counterattack and save the 106th Infantry Division, found itself barely able
to hang on near St. Vith, which the head of the division reached by nightfall
on December 17. Eventually further reinforced by the 112th Infantry Regiment
(from the 28th Infantry Division), the 424th Infantry Regiment (the regiment of
the 106th Infantry Division that was not encircled) and a combat command from
the 9th Armored Division, the Americans held on against increasingly heavy
German assaults. German pressure increased until, on December 21, an all-out
German assault by the Fuhrer Begleit Brigade, the 2SS Panzer, 9ss Panzer 18th
Volksgrenadier and 62nd Volksgrenadier divisions drove the defenders back into
a bulged salient west of St. Vith, that came to be called the "Fortified Goose
Egg". This position seemed dangerously exposed and, to shorten their lines, the
Americans were withdrawn towards the positions of the American 82nd Airborne
Division near Vielsalm.
In the southern part of the German Fifth Panzer Army's front,
the spread-out units of the veteran U. S. 28th Infantry Division were hit by
the 2nd Panzer, 116th Panzer, Lehr Panzer, 26th Volksgrenadier and 560th
Volksgrenadier divisions as well as the German Seventh Army's 5th
Fallschirmjager and 352nd Volksgranadier divisions. The Americans fought
desperately to contest the advance while blowing bridges to further delay the
Germans but Clervaux and Wiltz were taken and much of two regiments of the 28th
Infantry Division were destroyed as the Germans made their most significant
advances of the early days of the offensive. The sacrifices by the 28th
Infantry division gave time for additional troops to reach the sector. First on
the scene, the U. S. 10th Armored Division organized small task groups to
establish road blocks along the main roads leading to the key road hub at
Bastogne. These task groups gained enough time to allow the U. S. 101st
Airborne Division to be trucked into Bastogne and establish defensive positions
just ahead of the German spearheads, which were duly repulsed by the crack
"Screaming Eagles". Eventually reinforced by elements of the 9th and 10th
Armored divisions and some battered survivors from the 28th Infantry Division.
Although eventually encircled, the tough American airborne troopers were used
to being isolated and supplied from the air and were not worried. While the
German Lehr Panzer and 26th Volksgrenadier divisions formed an encircling ring
around Bastogne, the 2nd and 116th Panzer Divisions skirted the defenders to
penetrate further west but their supply situation would be precarious as long
as the Americans could hang on to the Bastogne crossroads.
At the extreme southern end of the offensive, the German
Seventh Army took some valuable ground, but the 212th and 276th Volksgrenadier
divisions were largely stopped by the hard-fighting U. S. 4th Infantry
Division, supported by still more elements of the ubiquitous U. S. 9th and 10th
Armored divisions, spread across the whole front of the emerging "bulge". The
German plan called for their Seventh Army to push further south before
establishing a defense to cover the flank of their offensive, Brandenberger's
army of largely under strength leg infantry units was too weak for the job and
the defensive line had to be established in the positions that had been reached
and were available. The German infantrymen of the Seventh Army dug-in and
prepared for the inevitable American offensive from Patton's Third Army to the
south.
By the evening of December 21, the original German plan for a
dash north was clearly unworkable and a modified and less ambitious operation
was being improvised to exploit the opportunities presented by the actual
German successes. The rough terrain that had made the Ardennes such an unlikely
location for a major offensive had worked against the chances of German
success. Time after time, a handful of American defenders had been able to
delay large German mechanized formations, usually restricted to movement on the
icy and undeveloped road net. On the plus side for the Germans, so far the
weather had prevented the overwhelming Allied airpower from playing much of a
part in the fierce fighting. On the other hand, the often larger and heavier
German tanks with their longer-range guns lost many of their advantages in
terrain where lines of sight of more than a few hundred yards were rare and
where mines and ambushes could be effectively concentrated along the
predictably few feasible lines of advance.
Allied reinforcements were arriving in the area much faster
than the German planners had anticipated. Fuhrer Hitler, who habitually and
continually interfered with even the smallest details of German military
operations, couldn't imagine that his political opposite numbers, President
Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston S. Churchill wouldn't do the
same. Reasoning that General Eisenhower would have to coordinate his actions
with these two distant politicians before shifting troops to the area, Hitler
was surprised by the rapid Allied response. In the event, "Ike" was in complete
control of the battle, even to making a very controversial decision regarding
command arrangements. The deep German penetrations were disrupting
communications with Omar Bradley's U. S. Twelfth Army Group and Eisenhower made
the unpopular decision to divide the "bulge" into northern and southern halves.
British Field Marshal Montgomery, to the displeasure of most high-ranking
American officers, was placed in charge of the northern half, taking command of
Bradley's U. S. First and U. S. Ninth armies. Bradley remained in command to
the south, which now included only the U. S. Third Army, which now included
Troy Middleton's U. S. VIII Corps, the original defenders of the Ardennes.
The new German plan was to continue a more gradual advance on
the Meuse River while massing forces to clear the bottleneck caused by the U.
S. 101st Airborne Division at Bastogne. Hitler predictably called the planning
changes preparation for a later continuation of the original plans but, in
reality, the Germans were now reduced to causing as much damage and delay as
possible to the Allied forces. Although the Germans were not yet aware of it,
their opportunities to advance were coming to an end. Additional Allied forces
were rapidly approaching the "bulge" to close the last gaps in the American
lines. To the south, General George S. "Blood and Guts" Patton, Jr. and his U.
S. Third Army were about to strike hard at the German southern flank. Soon, the
advantages gained by the Germans with their initial surprise would end and the
Americans on and above the battlefield would outnumber the German.
THE TIDE TURNS AND THE YANKS ATTACK
As early as December 21, German logistical difficulties became
apparent when both the 2nd and 2nd SS Panzer divisions sat idle for lack of
fuel. The Lehr Panzer and 26th Volksgrenadier divisions proved too weak to
defeat the stubborn 101st Airborne Division, so, on December 22, German
reinforcements were put in motion to move to Bastogne at the same time as
Patton’s U. S. Third Army started an offensive into the German’s southern
flank. The veteran 4th Armored Division spearheaded Third Army’s drive but
immediately ran into fierce resistance from the 5th Fallschirmjager Division.
On December 23, after Patton demanded that his chaplain compose a prayer for
fair weather and, after issuing it to all Third Army units the day before, the
skies cleared for the first time during the battle, and Allied aircraft swarmed
over the battlefield with overwhelming power. The German Luftwaffe (Air Force)
was making a maximum effort to support their offensive but their thousand
aircraft were brushed aside by the qualitative and quantitative superiority of
Allied air power. The clearing weather permitted air drops to supply isolated
Bastogne and the unceasing Allied air support over the next four days made
German daylight movements and supply efforts very difficult.
While fighting raged around Bastogne, the last German offensive
moves continued to the west. The 116th Panzer
Division had been repulsed at Hotton on December 21 but the 2nd SS Panzer
Division continued to advance on Manhay and the 2nd Panzer Division was
thrusting toward Dinant. On December 24, the 2nd Panzer Division reached
Celles, which proved to be the high water mark of the German offensive. The
116th Panzer Division continued to be be repulsed by the U. S. 84th Infantry
Division at Hotten and Marche and the 2nd SS Panzer and Lehr Panzer divisions
subsequently had minor successes in taking Manhay and Rochefort, but the German
offensive was clearly running out of steam. The powerful U. S. VII Corps under
"Lightning Joe" Collins was now prepared to attack the German spearhead. The
2nd Panzer Division, sitting a Celles with no fuel, was attacked by its
American opposite number, the 2nd Armored Division and largely destroyed in a
series of battles. The 9th and Lehr Panzer divisions had to be sent forward to
save the 2nd Panzer’s remnants and slow the 2nd Armored Division’s advance.
Meanwhile, around Bastogne, a crisis in the battle was reached.
Despite supply from the air and vicious fighter-bomber attacks on the
encircling Germans, General Anthony McAuliffe’s "Screaming Eagles" were under
increasing pressure. McAuliffe, whose celebrated reply of, "Nuts!," to a German
surrender demand is undoubtably the single most famous incident in the Battle
of the Bulge, and his tough airborne troops successfully held on as the
newly-arrived German 15th Panzergrenadier Division attacked. The U. S. 4th
Armored Division’s relief force made only slow progress from Martelange and did
not link up with the defenders of Bastogne until December 26. Further Third
Army troops moved up to widen the life-line corridor into Bastogne while
additional German reinforcements massed to try to isloate the town again,
leading to some of the hardest and most-sustained fighting of the enire
campaign. Patton was forced to feed in more and more of his constantly
attacking troops into the fighting in and around Bastogne. The Germans did not
give up the fight for the Belgian crossroads town until after the new year
started.
This marked the absolute end of the German offensive, The
Battle of the Bulge officially continued until January 29, 1945, but the nature
of the January fighting was just more of the stubborn German defense that
continued along the entire front. In reality, by the end of 1944, the the
ability of the German forces to attack was at an end. Hitler’s great gamble had
failed.